March 21 2023 9:43 p.m. Lima Peru
Technical Analysis by Raul Fernando Luna Toro
Today, The SPX 500 Large Cap fared better but not enough to change the Primary Degree downtrend. Momentum indicators improved for the SPX slightly however in counter trend mode. Both momentum and wave structure have to improve much more before a new upward trend is confirmed for the SPX 500 large Cap. As it stands now, the downtrend is very much at risk.
SPX 500 Large Cap Technical Outlook
The $SPX 500 Large Cap Index gained +1.30% today hitting an intraday high of 4009.08 before closing at the 4002.87. Today’s 4009.08 intraday high pushed the benchmark index slightly above the (200) EMA. On the DMI –Di slid to 25.51 as +Di popped to the 26.36 signaling a possible new uptrend. However, ADX slid down to the 14.16 indicating this an upward consolidation. The ADX needs to be at least above 20 for trend confirmation.
Daily Technical Forecast
Chaikin Money Flow is now positive at 0.065 as the bulk of the volume favors the upside slightly. However, as with the ADX, it is still weak.
Despite the index making it above the 200 EMA, the (20) and (50) are still under the (200) and in bearish order. Notice that they are also bunched together as the (200) is almost parallel indicating range.
$SPX S&P Large Cap Index INDX
SPX 500 Elliott Wave Forecast Daily Bar
Now, the drop from the 4196.55 Intermediate (2) to the 3808.17 low is in 3 waves and could be a zigzag signaling a bullish correction. Although the Elliott structure is favoring a bearish continuation. Price has not been able to make it above the 4196.55 Feb 1st high in order to invalidate the count for a bullish one. Moreover, price hasn’t even been able to get above the 4079.41 March high. Therefore making the supposed zigzag down form Intermediate (2) high most likely a bearish 1-2 series at Minute and Minuette Degree.
In short, today’s move was not enough to change the Primary degree downtrend. And a lesser degree Intermediate Degree (2), despite taking a bit too long, is still intact.
SPX 500 4-Hour Bar Elliott Wave Forecast
Minute Degree completes in five waves. From the 4-hour bar chart you can see the Minute Circled ii complete at the 4079.41 March 6 high. The pattern’s internal counts a five. Despite looking like an impulse, Minute (ii) was completely retraced while also completing 9.58 points below the Fibonacci 61.8% 2vs1 which is classic wave 2 action.
SPX 500 1-Hour Bar Elliott Wav Forecast
The ensuing drop was also in five waves as it completed down at the 3808.17 March 13 low for Minuette (i). The subsequent rally is very overlapping and made it back up to the Minute upper channel trend line. This was a sharp correction past the Fibonacci Minuette 2vs1 61.8% which is wave 2 fashion. And the pattern has taken the form of a double zigzag with wave Y now most likely complete. Notice that the pattern made it to both upper channel trend lines signaling a competed pattern as both the count and the channel trend ending have been met. We can now expect the downtrend to resume.
