Technical Analysis by Raul Fernando Luna Toro
BITMARKETPERU.COM
EUR/USD TANKS ON NEWS
EUR/USD falls 1.12% during European session as banking crisis worsens. The bad news sank the pair from the $1.0830 to the 1.0711 late during European trading. US markets, however, bought the pair pushing up a bit to the $1.0750. Note that he EUR/USD had been falling anyway. The news only helped push EUR/USD fall along its bearish corrective trend from the 1.1033 Feb 1st high. (See Elliott Wave Forecast below)
$EURUSD EURO TO DOLLAR FOREX
EUR/USD is on a clear upward trend from the September 2022 low. The move down from the February high is corrective and should keep falling (see Elliott Wave forecast below) Full STO is overbought on the Daily and signaling a turn. The indicator is also diverging form the Feb high. ADX is sudued at 17.11 despite the bullish +Di at 31.11 while -Di is at 16.10–classic range action.
European Shares Sink on Banking Crisis
TradingEconomics.com: On Friday, the major European Indices fell by more than 2%, due to mounting concerns over the health of the banking sector. The banking index experienced a decline of over 5%. Deutsche Bank shares plummeted by 12% pm the announcement that it intended to redeem $1.5 billion of tier 2 notes due in 2028. Also, its credit default swaps surged to the highest level since their introduction in 2019.
Moreover, reports surfaced that UBS and Credit Suisse were under scrutiny in a US Justice Department probe. These reports further contributed to the negative sentiment.
US Fares No Better
US futures sank fast early hours trading on renewed concerns over the global banking system. The Dow Jones futures contracts lost nearly 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. Additionally, bank shares were under heavy pressure, with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup all falling. Additionally, US-listed shares of Deutsche Bank sank almost 8% due to the redemption fo the 2 tier notes mentioned above.
EUR/USD FXCM MONTHLY LOG
EUR/USD Monthly Bar: The pattern most likely forming from the $0.95358 is most likely an expanding flat. The $0.95358 August 2022 low dropped below the Fibonacci 138.2% BvsA and in the same month rallied back above it. And in expanding flat fashion, price did stop there climbing back up above the $1.04625 100% BvsA. Price is currently trading at the $1.0744.
EUR/USD FXCM WEEKLY LOG
Weekly Bar: EUR/USD’s rally up from the $0.95358 Primary B is in five waves at the $1.10333 test of the long term trend line from the 0.82320 Oct 2000 low. This ensuing drop should be Intermediate (2) which has yet to reach the Fibo $1.04613 38.2% 2vs1.
EUR/USD DAILY LOG
Daily Bar: EUR/USD carves out correction. Minor degree corrective has formed its A-B sequence at the $1.05329 and $1.09299 respectively. Minor C has dropped and is now testing the Minor Degree Channel mid-trend line.
EUR/USD 4-Hour Log
4-Hour Bar: EUR/USD continues its downtrend corrective. Minor A cut out a Leading Diagonal series at the $1.05329 low. The ensuing Minute corrective took the form of a classic expand flat for Minor B at the $1.09416 March 23 high. We can expect this recent drop off Minor B to reach at least the Minor Degree Lower Channel Trend Line testing he %38.2% Intermediate 2vs1.
