BTC/USD FAILS AT RESISTANCE

BTC/USD DAILY FORECAST JULY 05 2023

BTC/USD $30,420.81; USD/PEN S/. 3.6247; EUR/USD $1.0870; GOLD $1920.17; USOIL $71.43

Bitcoin to US Dollar fails to take out the $31,412.43 June 23rd high.  The benchmark crypto is now heading back down keeping the consolidation from said high in play. 

Daily momentum indicators are still very bullish.  ADX (14) is ticking strong at 39.30 with +Di at 29.31 while –Di is down at the 12.66.  MACD has cooled off a bit but is still in bullish mode.  The signal line has dropped to the 944.307 just above the MACD line at 928.079.  However, the MACD is diverging from the April highs. 

But nothing to worry about for the bulls as sentiment indicators are all behind this new bullish move for BTC.  CNN Fear Greed Index is at 79 which is high but ok as the SPX500’s bullish move from the Oct 2022 low is still structurally sound.   BTC Fear Greed index is at 61 which signals that sentiment has more upside potential before we are overbought. 

Plus, market momentum is very bullish.  Price is 9.21% above the 50 SMA and 21.74% above its 200 SMA. 

BTC/USD DAILY BAR STOCKCHARTS.COM

BTC/USD DAILY BAR CHART
Above is a daily bar chart by Stockcharts.com with indicators ADX (14) +DI -DI, a MACD, and a 50 and 200 SMA

Elliott Wave BTC/USDT SHORT TERM UPDATE

                 The Minuette Degree corrective series failed to make it above the $31,431.94 high extending Minuette (ii).  Price hit an intraday high at $31,380.00 before dropping in what should be a C wave of a regular flat. 

The first drop from the $31.431.94 June 23 high was in three waves finalizing Subminuette-a at the $29,500.00 June 3rd low.   The preceding rally carved out three more waves reaching past the 88.7% Subminuette BvsA hitting the $31,380.00 for Subminuette-b.  (B waves of flats require more than an 90.0% BvsA retracement.)   Yesterday, BTC/USDT dropped in its C wave so far carving out what looks like an impulse forming.  Moreover, momentum is strong to the downside as flat’s C waves usually are. Target for this C wave is at channel trend line support. 

BTC/USDT BINANCE DAILY BAR

BTC/USDT BINANCE DAILY BAR CHART
Above is a daily bar chart of BTC/USDT BINANCE with Elliott Wave labeling by Raúl fernando Luna Toro
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