Featured chart by Motive Wave
Technical and Elliott Wave Analysis by Raul Fernando Luna Toro
Today’s price action has so far remained inside yesterday’s contracted bar. This morning BTC/USDT opened up at $22409.41 moved up to an intraday high of $22557.91 and down to an intraday low of $22321.00 and is now trading at the $22396 and change.
Price momentum
BTC/USDT has dropped down below the orange monthly wave and is now testing the underside of the orange 34 period EMA lows. Notice also that the red 8 period EMA has pushed down into the center of the orange wave and that both the 8 and the 34s are putting in negative figures. This is the near term downside confirmation. A drop down below the blue 144/169 EMAs is the second longer term confirmation.
The white ADX is pinched up at the 22.84 with both blue +Di and red –Di warning of a trend reversal to the downside! Once the red –Di moves above the blue +Di with the ADX at 22 and change the downward trend is on!
Moreover, the according to daily 14 period Chaikin Money Flow, the bulk of the daily volume is now favoring the downside at -0.0782. This adds to the bearish outlook.
ATR has calmed though, pushing the 14 period down onto the 200 period. However, once the break to the downside occurs, volatility should pick up.
Yesterday’s price action expanded the blue Submicro Degree triangle pushing wave blue wave (C) up to the $22602.19 and blue wave (D) down to the $22321.00. Now there is a chance that wave(E) completed up at the $22557.91 and wave (D) down at the $22320.01 for a complete triangle. This would make the down move from the $22557.91 high the first wave of circled red Micro Degree 5.
However, the chances are low. Most times any break from the terminal end of a triangle is fast a furious. This drop here is still very overlapping and corrective.
What is most likely taking form is the triangle has expanded out further. Remember the all financial markets develop in fractals. This one here most likely expanded outward pushing the waves out as labeled.
Support and resistance levels have been readjusted. All trend line support and resists.
