Bitcoin is currently trading at $30,669.83 this Sunday morning, showing no significant movement after retracing from its $31,412.00 June 23 intraday high. Following a bearish consolidation period, Bitcoin experienced a substantial rally, surging $6,650.22 (26.85%) from its $24,762.00 June 15 low. This impressive rally resulted in an increase in the ADX indicator to 32.20. The +Di indicator also rose to 36.91, up from its previous level of 10.50. During the June low at $24,762.12, Bitcoin was 10.15% below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, the subsequent rally propelled Bitcoin 13.35% above the 50-day SMA, with the current price at $30,699.56. This rapid and substantial movement signifies a significant market shift. As a result, both the MACD line and the signal line moved above the centerline to 360.17 and 914.13, respectively. Despite the strong momentum observed in the past week, sentiment remains positive without reaching an extreme level.
$BTCUSD DAILY BAR
Elliott Wave Forecast
BTC/USDT BINANCE WEEKLY FORECAST
Based on the break of the lower channel trend line and the $28,805.00 June 2021 low, there is a high probability of a bearish corrective pattern forming at Primary degree. The downward move from the $69,000.00 high to the $15,476.00 Nov 2022 low can be identified as a five-wave structure. In corrective patterns, we typically observe a breakdown into 5-3-5 internal waves. Since the initial drop counts as a five-wave move, we can anticipate a three-wave upward movement followed by another five-wave decline.
This implies that the upward move from the $15,476.00 Nov 2022 low represents a three-wave corrective pattern labeled as wave B. In most cases, B waves tend to retrace between 50% and 78.6% of the preceding wave A. In Bitcoin’s case, the rally reached the 38.6% retracement level but fell short of the $32,677.88 50% level (BvsA). Additionally, B wave corrections usually consist of 5-3-5 internal waves. It is worth noting that the upward move from the $15,476.00 low can be counted as five waves when observing the daily chart.
Considering the corrective series down from the $31,000.00 April high and the recent rally, it can be inferred that Bitcoin is currently in an Intermediate (C) wave of Primary Circled-B. Upside targets for this wave are located at the $38,981.48 61.8% and the $50,109.96 78.6% BvsA retracement levels.
BTC/USDT BINANCE WEEKLY BAR
BTC/USDT BINANCE DAILY FORCAST
Bitcoin’s wave structure underwent a significant development after reaching the low of $15,476 in November 2022. It formed an impulse wave that concluded at the high of $31,000.00 in April 2023, marking the completion of Intermediate Degree (A). Following this, there was a decline to the $24,820.56 June low which likely completed Intermediate Degree (B). Confirming this was the strong rally above the Minor Degree upper channel trend line and the $24,820.56 April high of $31,000.
Currently, there remains a possibility that Intermediate (B) is still forming. However, the upward movement from the $24,820.56 low is robust and can be counted as an impulse at the $31,431.94. If this were a B wave counter corrective move within Intermediate (B), we would expect a subsequent drop followed by another upward move in five waves, forming an expanded flat for Intermediate (B). Such a scenario would surpass the 138.2% BvsA level, which exceeds the corrective limit for expanded flats in B waves. Therefore, the chances are high that this move is part of Intermediate Degree (C), representing a larger upward trend.
In this case, the projected target for 100% AvsC is $49,676.92, with the 61.8% level at $38,981.48.
The red dotted lines visible on the daily chart indicate momentum, which I use as a reference. It’s worth noting that the upward movement from $24,820.56 is significantly above the momentum line originating from the low of $24,820.56. If this upward momentum is sustained and breaks through the upper Intermediate channel trend line, it could indicate the initiation of a third wave advance instead of the C-wave. However, since the movement has formed an impulse at the high of $31,431.94, it is now expected that BTC/USDT will retrace the recent move, providing a cooling-off period.
BTC/USDT BINANCE DAILY BAR
BTC/USDT BINANCE 1-HOUR BAR
