In just a little over a year Bitcoin has gained $26,576.79 (170.18%) from its 2022 low. It has been by far one of the best performing assets of 2023 now trading at $42,558 and change. However, the benchmark is still technically in a bear market and needs to gain 63.38% to reach its $69,000.00 all-time high. The tremendous rally up from the 2022 low is considered a bear market rally which is very near its upside critical resistance level.
The near term Minor degree
Bitcoin has been in a trading range since the $44,700.00 December 8th high. The break should be to upside with heavy upper channel trend line resistance running through the psychological $48,000.00. If the benchmark crypto fails at this level, 2024 could see Bitcoin along with most of the crypto universe dropping considerably.
Near side resistance levels to the downside are at the $41,300.00 and $40,222.00 December lows.
Upside d-wave targets are at the $42,888.29, 43,391,15 and 43,899.91 Fibonacci DvsB levels. Above this the $44,700.00 and $44,398.26 high resist.
Long term support
Looking at the longer pattern forming on the weekly this Minor degree range should break to the upside once complete. However, the Intermediate upper channel trend line and the $48,000.00 is critical resistance. A weekly move above this area and Bitcoin will most likely test the $69,000.00 Nov 2021 all-time high.
Longer term, the Intermediate Degree lower channel trend line is critical support. Price support is at the $31,000.00, $26,538.00, and $15,476.00.
BTC/USDT weekly bar chart Binance
BTC/USDT 2-hour bar chart Binance
Market momentum
Market momentum is showing first signs of turning down. Negative DI has crossed above positive DI this week with the ADX ticking at 23.03. This signals a downside trend in progress on the daily. However, context is critical here. Notice that the ADX has been dropping from hits December highs. This momentum is typical during contractions at this degree. Price has also dropped below the 20 SMA. The 20, 50 and 200 EMAs are all lined up in bullish mode but at extremes which warn of a possible reversal. The CMF has also been waning since its November to December highs. This all warns of an impending turn.
BTC/USD Daily StockCharts.com
